U.S. President Joe Biden predicted on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a move into Ukraine and said Russia would pay dearly for a full-scale invasion, with its businesses possibly losing access to the U.S. dollar.
"My guess is he will move in," Biden told a news conference. "He has to do something."
The Kremlin has massed some 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders, a buildup that the West says is preparation for a war to prevent Ukraine from ever joining the NATO Western security alliance. Russia denies planning an invasion.
Biden told reporters he believed Putin would test Western leaders and he said that the response to any Russian invasion would depend on the scale of Moscow's actions and whether U.S. allies squabbled over how to react.
"Russia will be held accountable if it invades – and it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and what to not do, et cetera," Biden said.
"But if they actually do what they're capable of doing … it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine," Biden added.
Biden and his team have prepared a broad set of sanctions and other economic penalties to impose on Russia in the event of an invasion.
Biden, pressed on what he meant by "minor incursion," said NATO allies are not united on how to respond depending on what exactly Putin does, saying "there are differences" among them and that he was trying to make sure that "everybody's on the same page."
"Big nations can't bluff, number one. Number two, the idea that we would do anything to split NATO … would be a big mistake. So the question is, if it's something significantly short of a significant invasion or … just major military forces coming across. For example, it's one thing to determine if they continue to use cyber efforts; well, we can respond the same way," he said.
U.S. officials reject limiting NATO expansion as a non-starter, but Biden suggested there could be a deal under which the West might not station nuclear forces in Ukraine.
Visiting Kyiv in a show of support, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia could launch a new attack on Ukraine at "very short notice" but Washington would pursue diplomacy as long as it could, even though it was unsure what Moscow really wanted.